The Italian youth vote – the deciding factor in far-right victory?

“Libera forte e coraggiosa” (Giorgia Meloni)

Illustration credits: Annabel Jupp

Speaking to an Italian friend last February she seemed full of hope as she spoke to me about the ushering in of a new Italian prime minister. This prime minister, Mario Draghi, appeared to present a more sensible and moderate solution to Italy’s recent volatile and scandalous political climate. An economist and former president of the European Central Bank, Draghi seemed poised to lead the country towards fiscal and political stability. However, with Draghi’s resignation and the recent snap election, the threat of radical leadership has emerged once again with the selection of far-right candidate Giorgia Meloni as the next prime minister of Italy.

Italy is no stranger to radical politics; the country’s relationship with far-right, populist leaders spans back decades to the days of Mussolini. Fresher in the memory of Italians, however, will be the multiple governments of Berlusconi, often short tenures that were tainted by early resignations and scandal. This current shift towards more radical right-wing politics is nowhere more evident than in the election results of the 25thSeptember. The country’s right-wing parties have undeniably gained support with a great number of the Italian electorate, as demonstrated by the right-wing coalition winning 44% of the vote and the far-right Fratelli d’Italia party receiving the largest share of votes with 26%.

What can help explain this continued shift towards the far-right? The answer may lie in the leanings of the emerging electorate: the disenchanted youth of Italy. In a Tecnè poll taken last summer the Fratelli d’Italia party secured the largest proportion of the youth vote (18-21) with 23%, closely followed by Lega who obtained 22% of the vote. In Europe where recent tendencies have shown young people to be more likely to support progressive and left-leaning parties, it seems that Italy is breaking the pattern, at least at first glance. However, whilst it remains true that in places like the UK left-wing parties continue to retain the youth vote, countries like France and Spain are following Italy’s example with young people increasingly looking towards the right. In Spain, for example, the far-right, populist party Vox, is experiencing great popularity at the moment that hinges upon their rapid acquisition of support amongst young voters.

The significance of the Italian youth vote has greatly increased due to a recent change in election legislation concerning minimum voting age, in July. This will have been the first time 18-24 year olds have been able to vote for the senate. Whereas previously only 25+ year olds could have voted in the election of the second parliamentary house, (despite both houses having equal powers).

Throughout the run-up to the election, the importance of this group of the electorate was recognised by Italian politicians, with Forza’s leader Silvio Berlusconi’s appearing on the social media platform Tiktok as he aimed to appeal to the youth vote. In a recent video Berlusconi, grinning at the camera, declared that he wished to restore young Italians ‘hope for the future’. Left-wing parties like Partito Democratico also jumped on the bandwagon in garnering the support of young Italian voters. In their manifesto, the centre-left party promised a ‘dowry’ of up to €10,000 for young people when they turn eighteen. With opposite sides of the political spectrum having hoped to appeal to young Italian voters, the question arises: why has the right-wing been embraced as the preferred choice?

For a long time young Italians have been disillusioned with establishment politics, as they tend to bear the brunt of the country’s economic hardships. One of the most pressing economic issues facing young Italians today is unemployment. Compared with Europe’s total level of youth unemployment, which stands at around 7-8 %, Italy has one of the highest rates at around 25%. This figure has steadily remained high throughout the past couple of decades, reaching an astonishing peak of 43% in 2014. With a quarter of young Italians actively looking for employment but unable to find a job, it is no surprise that many are turning to radical answers.

In addition to issues of unemployment, Italy’s poor economic condition has been exacerbated by external problems like the energy crisis, as well as the long-term impact of the pandemic. For several years Beppe Grillo’s Movimento 5 Stelle seemed to embody the Italian youth’s anti-establishment sentiments, but recently the party has fallen out of favour with many who claim that they haven’t delivered on their political agenda. Instead, right-wing parties have stepped in to fill the void left by the anti-establishment party, and with their promises of reduced immigration have gained a tremendous amount of votes from young, job-seeking Italians.

With the results of the recent election, let’s take a brief look at the composition of the right-wing coalition who are set to lead the country: Firstly, the new prime minister Giorgia Meloni is at the helm of the Brothers of Italy, dubbed a ‘post-fascist’ party by many. What was Meloni’s attraction for voters? Though her proposed policies like anti-immigration and anti-abortion are hardline and controversial, she succeeded in presenting herself as a softer, more appealing face of the right-wing throughout her campaign. Meloni’s electoral ally is Matteo Salvini, leader of the Lega party. Though Salvini’s own popularity has plummeted since his collapsed coalition government in 2019, he managed to form a comfortable majority with Meloni, despite their differing opinions on major campaign issues (e.g. sanctions against Russia). Forming the final part of Italy’s rightist coalition is the seemingly immortal Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia and four-time prime minister of Italy. Despite his far from pristine history, ranging from tax fraud to the infamous ‘bunga bunga’ party scandal, Berlusconi has managed to survive and remain in government.

Whilst Meloni and the right-wing coalition might currently feel secure in having a mandate to govern, the greater challenge will be delivering on their promises to the young people of Italy and retaining their vote.